Goldman Sachs · Elo Model · 50,000 simulations · May 2026
Favourites to win the World Cup 2026
Goldman Sachs published an econometric model in May 2026 based on ~20,000 historical matches and 50,000 tournament simulations using Elo ratings. Spain leads with a 26% probability. France (19%) and Argentina (14%) complete the podium. The model projects a Spain vs. Argentina final in New York on July 19th, with a Spanish victory.
Primary source: Goldman Sachs, "The World Cup and Economics: World Cup 2026, Predictions, Probabilities and Paths to Victory" (May 2026). Model based on Elo ratings and ~20,000 historical matches with 50,000 simulations. Colombia and Germany come from the consensus of ESPN, Opta, The Guardian and Bracket2026. Historical note: this same model predicted Brazil as champions in 2014, 2018 and 2022. It was wrong all three times.
Group analysis · Qualification projection · ESPN and Soccerway
The Group of Death
Three groups concentrate the most uncertainty in the tournament. According to ESPN and Soccerway, these are the groups where qualification is least predictable and where the most favourites can be eliminated in the group stage.
Consensus · Goldman Sachs · ESPN · Opta · The Guardian · Polymarket · Bracket2026
What the analysts say
Six conclusions that emerge from cross-referencing the Goldman Sachs model, real-time prediction markets and specialist sports media analysis.
Spain, France and Argentina account for 59% of the probability according to Goldman Sachs. ESPN, Opta, The Guardian and Bracket2026 also place them in the Top 3. It's rare for so many independent sources to align so clearly on the same three favourites.
5+ source consensusGoldman Sachs' model projects a final between Spain and Argentina in New York on July 19th, with a Spanish victory. This is the most likely scenario according to their 50,000 simulations. Spain would have the clearest path to the final, while Argentina would arrive from the other side of the bracket.
Spain vs Argentina · 19/7 NYCColombia and Germany are the most-cited alternative bets by analysts. Colombia for their consistency in recent South American qualifying. Germany because even in their worst cycles they tend to go deep in major tournaments. Both with genuine upset potential, not just filler picks.
Colombia · GermanyGoldman Sachs notes that the World Cup "almost always returns to Europe after being won by a South American team". Since 1978, no confederation has repeated in consecutive editions. Argentina would need to break that pattern to win back-to-back. The model itself translates this into a statistical penalty for the title defender.
Pattern since 1978ESPN highlights the France vs. Norway clash — Mbappé against Haaland — as the most anticipated match of the group stage. Two of the world's best strikers in the same game. Regardless of the result, it's the star clash that defines the appeal of this edition.
Mbappé vs HaalandGoldman Sachs predicted Brazil as champions in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Wrong all three times. Statistical models are useful for understanding general trends and comparing teams, but football has a degree of randomness that no simulation fully captures. Probabilities describe possible scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes.
3/3 failed predictionsFIFA history · 1930–2022 · Official data
Champion Countries by Edition
22 World Cups, 8 different champions. The historical record explains part of the reasoning behind the models: the same nations concentrate the titles, and that weighs heavily in statistical projections.
Compiled on 8 June 2026
Sources consulted
The data and analysis on this page come from the following sources. Reading the original reports is recommended for further context.
Econometric model based on Elo ratings, ~20,000 historical matches and 50,000 simulations. Predicts Spain (26%), France (19%) and Argentina (14%). Projects a Spain vs. Argentina final on 19/7 in New York.
Read full report (PDF) →Real-time odds based on millions of users. They differ from the Goldman Sachs model, reflecting the tournament's real uncertainty. 20 active markets on the 2026 World Cup.
See live markets →Group-by-group analysis. Highlights Mbappé vs. Haaland (France-Norway) as the star match. Predictions of who qualifies and who falls in the group stage.
Read ESPN analysis →Cross-references predictions from ESPN, Opta, The Guardian and their own models. Consensus: Argentina, Spain and France in the Top 4. Brazil in "second tier" due to recent inconsistency. Colombia and Germany as dark horses.
See comparison →Details the 6 favourites according to analysts and bookmakers: Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal. Points to Spain as number 1 due to Elo ranking and current form.
Read CNN Spanish analysis →Simulation where the highest-ranked team always advances. Spain has the clearest path. France would face Germany and the Netherlands before the semis. The 4 major teams in separate brackets.
See bracket projection →Examines the assumptions behind the models: "champions don't usually repeat" (penalty for Argentina), "it's harder to score against European teams". Useful for understanding the mechanics of predictions.
Read analysis →Quotes the Goldman report: "our prediction aligns with the historical pattern that the World Cup almost always returns to Europe after being won by a South American team."
Read article →